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<h1>2012 map takes unfamiliar shape</h1>
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<div class="caption close-this" id="caption_3955">Some of the biggest states President Obama carried are poised to lose electoral votes. |
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By <a href="http://www.politico.com/reporters/MaggieHaberman.html">MAGGIE HABERMAN</a> & <a href="http://www.politico.com/reporters/ShiraToeplitz.html">SHIRA TOEPLITZ</a> |
10/9/10 7:15 AM EDT
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<p>If the newest Census Bureau estimates stay close to form, President Barack Obama’s reelection roadmap could look considerably different than the one that took him to the White House in 2008. </p><p>
Back then, he won 68 percent of the electoral vote — 365 electoral votes in all — powered by wins in eight of the nation’s 10 most populous states. But population growth and shifts of residents between states will impact the way electoral votes are reapportioned in advance of the 2012 elections, and it appears more votes are moving toward states that he lost and away from the ones he won the first time around. </p>
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Between reapportionment and the erosion of support in certain states and regions where he had success two years ago, the 2012 path to victory could become more complicated. </p><p>
“It's certainly hard to argue that the shift ... is anything but [a problem] for Obama,” said Tom Bonier of the liberal National Committee for an Effective Congress, which follows population trends and voting data closely. </p><p>
Nothing will be official, of course, until after December when the U.S. Census Bureau completes its tallies. That population data will determine how House seats are parceled out among the states as well as the allocation of electoral votes (the formula is a state’s total number of House seats, plus two). </p><p>
But a study released late last month by Election Data Services reported that some of the biggest states Obama carried are poised to lose electoral votes while some of the biggest that opposed him are likely to gain. </p><p>
New York, the nation’s third-largest state and an Obama stronghold in 2008, is likely to lose two electoral votes. The same is true for Ohio, another state carried by the president, which also will lose two. </p><p>
Other likely one-vote losers are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — Obama won all of them except Missouri and Louisiana. </p><p>
“It does make it a little bit tougher on Democrats,” said EDS President Kim Brace. “It basically throws the electoral vote a little bit more toward the Republican side, with the shift going from the Northeast and the upper Midwest and to the South and to the West.” </p><p>
“It’s not overly dramatic,” he added, “but if you get a real close election, it could [make] a difference. It’ll change the mechanics, from a campaign standpoint, of which states [they] need to go after.” </p><p>
According to the EDS estimates, the biggest winner will be Texas, a solid Republican state in 2008 that is expected to add four new electoral votes. </p><p>
The other likely beneficiaries of additional electoral votes are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington, all of which are expected to gain a seat each. Obama won Washington and Nevada, but lost the other four. </p><p>
Then there is Florida, site of a crucial Obama victory last time, which is set to pick up two new votes —making it all the more important in a close contest with a redefined map. </p><p>
“We’re extraordinarily excited about it and it means good things for us,” said John Thrasher, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party. “We’re going to be an important state in 2012. Two more congressional seats will make it an even bigger deal. And certainly having the [Republican] convention here in Florida energizes our folks even more.”</p></p>
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<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=437DA951-188B-4977-260AE40FAFA2D7C7">Dread-neck</a> <div>Party: Conservative</div></div>
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<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:28 AM EST</div>
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<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>People are fleeing the blue states because they're opressively taxing and the state governments are still going bankrupt They're moving to red states. Look at California and Illinois. Their state governments are barely able to function because they're running out of places to borrow money. It's insane.</p></div>
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<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=610CC575-1C23-CEB9-149551B0EFE7FB61">poorsinner101</a> <div>Party: Republican</div></div>
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Reply #2
<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:30 AM EST</div>
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