design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061

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1. dezren39

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   area/infraInfrastructure, deployment, and operationsInfrastructure, deployment, and operations

   kind/designA design proposal (design-architect): multi-step, phased, decision-bearingA design proposal (design-architect): multi-step, phased, decision-bearing

   on Nov 5, 2026
2. developing-today commented on Nov 5, 2026

   

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3. dezren39

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   queue/queuedHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queueHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queue

   task/triageQueue packet kind: verify, reproduce, and route this itemQueue packet kind: verify, reproduce, and route this item

   work/assignedQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

   queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

   status/in-progressQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

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   queue/queuedHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queueHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queue

   on Nov 5, 2026
4. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

   

   dezren39

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   🤖 Agent note · handed off

   • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), lane code-y
   • Session / ID: task 10426
   • Found via: queue claim
   • Task: Triage of issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 (design: storage growth model — churn × retention simulation) was claimed by lane code-y; the execution-lane assignment routed it to the opencode lane, so it is handed off — the laptop claimant (opencode-claimant) launches the bound opencode session that drives task 10426 to its terminal state.
   • Expectation: claimant binds a session to task 10426; triage per the task packet.
   • Links: task 10426 (queue repo-health-code-pilot)
5. dezren39

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   queue/parkedQueue task is parked (waiting on CI, time, or an event)Queue task is parked (waiting on CI, time, or an event)

   status/parkedDeliberately paused with a recorded resume conditionDeliberately paused with a recorded resume condition

   and removed

   status/in-progressQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

   queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

   on Nov 5, 2026
6. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

   

   dezren39

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   🤖 Agent note · handed off

   • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), lane code-o
   • Session / ID: task 10426
   • Found via: queue claim
   • Task: Triage issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 (design(atlas): storage growth model) — assigned to the opencode execution lane again on re-claim (previously handed off at 2026-11-05T12:58Z, claimant had not launched before the park cycled); handed off to the laptop claimant, not worked by this lane. Issue verified OPEN this shift, no hard-stop labels.
   • Expectation: claimant launches the bound opencode session for task 10426.
   • Links: n/a
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8. dezren39

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   queue/parkedQueue task is parked (waiting on CI, time, or an event)Queue task is parked (waiting on CI, time, or an event)

   status/parkedDeliberately paused with a recorded resume conditionDeliberately paused with a recorded resume condition

   on Nov 5, 2026
9. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

   

   dezren39

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   🤖 Agent note · handed off

   • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), lane code-v
   • Session / ID: task 10426
   • Found via: queue claim
   • Task: Triage of issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 — execution lane assigned opencode; handed off to the opencode claimant, which launches the bound session.
   • Expectation: claimant session drives task 10426 to a terminal state under the queue worker id.
   • Links: issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061
10. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

    

    dezren39

    on Nov 5, 2026

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    🤖 Agent note · handed off

    • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), lane code-s
    • Session / ID: task 10426
    • Task: Triage design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061: design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retentio. Claimed by lane code-s; execution-lane assignment returned opencode, so this task is handed off to the opencode claimant — no direct work by this lane. Fresh check on claim: issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 OPEN, no hard-stop labels.
    • Resume condition: claimant launches the bound opencode session and drives task 10426 to its terminal state.
    • Links: issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061
11. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

    

    dezren39

    on Nov 5, 2026

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    🤖 Agent note · handed off

    • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), lane code-r
    • Session / ID: task 10426
    • Found via: queue claim
    • Task: handing off task 10426 for issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 to the opencode claimant (execution lane: opencode); kind triage. Verified fresh: issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 is OPEN with no hard-stop labels.
    • Expectation: claimant launches the bound opencode session and drives task 10426 to a terminal state
    • Links: issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061
12. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

    

    dezren39

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    🤖 Agent note · handed off

    • Agent: repo queue worker, lane code-p (repo-worker-code)
    • Session / ID: cron repo-queue-worker-shift-p run 2026-11-05; task 10426
    • Found via: claimed task 10426 this shift; execution-lane assignment returned opencode
    • Task: task 10426 for issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 (triage). Fresh check: issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 is OPEN, no hard-stop labels (held / user/owned / do-not-merge / do-not-auto-edit). Handed off to the opencode claimant — the claimant launches the bound opencode session; this lane does not work it directly.
    • Expectation: claimant session drives task 10426 to a terminal state.
    • Links: task 10426 · issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061
13. dezren39

    added

    queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

    status/in-progressQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

    and removed

    status/parkedDeliberately paused with a recorded resume conditionDeliberately paused with a recorded resume condition

    queue/parkedQueue task is parked (waiting on CI, time, or an event)Queue task is parked (waiting on CI, time, or an event)

    on Nov 5, 2026
14. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

    

    dezren39

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    🤖 Agent note · picked up

    • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), OpenChamber scheduled lane
    • Session / ID: task 10426
    • Found via: queue claim, lane 02cafe76-eafd-4d0b-aaa6-2b7a737d68dc
    • Task: Triage issue design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061; revalidated OPEN with no hard-stop labels. Reviewing the current design/parent/sibling state and will record a concrete route or blocker.
    • Expectation: verify at current main, post findings and route follow-up if needed, then complete task.
    • Links: task 10426 · design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061
15. dezren39 commented on Nov 5, 2026

    

    dezren39

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    Triage result — task 10426 / issue #6061

    Verdict: design-only; ready for the design stage. Revalidated on 2026-11-05: #6061 is OPEN with no hard-stop labels. Parent design #6019 and consumer design #6026 are OPEN; #6043 is CLOSED by merged PR #6269. GitHub search returned no matching open PR for the storage-growth/retention design. This is not a runtime defect: no reproduction, code change, or code tests apply. #6061 itself is the design handoff, so no duplicate queue task is needed.

    Evidence and bounded route: the current Atlas sizing document is a point-in-time baseline, not the requested churn/retention model: 107,639 chunks, 3,072 raw bytes/vector, 4.8 GB total, and 1.15 GB in messages (baseline). The same inventory measures a 160,576 B/row vector-index shadow (~17.3 GB), with the projected database at ~22.1 GB against 24 GB included (~1.9 GB headroom); validate that unusual amplification rather than assuming it applies to future versions (C1). The staging design permits unlimited detail before promotion and archives closed staging databases, but does not specify archive expiry; model this lifecycle separately from retained corpus versions (staging).

    Design #6061 around measured per-source new/changed bytes per period × retained-version duration, adjusted for span reuse, manifests/metadata, index amplification, and hot/cold storage. Use the per-batch ledger in #6058 as the calibration source; it will take weeks of operation to provide representative rates, so define the model and calibration procedure now but keep initial defaults conservative (retain more) until data matures. Project against #6019's plan envelope and include staging archives separately. Coordinate the retention inputs with #6026 and its #6041 dry-run rule-engine work; keep cold-tier movement ahead of any deletion by at least one full retention cycle. The merged #6043 decision record confirms retention requires both a named trigger and a class rule; PITR is not a substitute. Coordinate delta/reuse assumptions with #6028.

    The remaining blocker is only measured recalibration: representative ledger observations need to accrue. No destructive retention action should be enabled as part of this design triage.

    🤖 Agent note · done (triaged)

    • Agent: repo-worker-code, OpenChamber scheduled lane 02cafe76-eafd-4d0b-aaa6-2b7a737d68dc
    • Task: queue task 10426 — triage design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061
    • Outcome: triaged and routed to design; design(atlas): storage growth model — churn × retention simulation calibrating v1 retention defaults #6061 remains OPEN as the design handoff. No separate queue task, PR, code edit, or tests were applicable.
    • Links: design(atlas): semi-automated ingestion operations — source set, usefulness filter, disk/IO + plan-spend guardrails #6019 · design(atlas): content versioning + retention — versions, rename lineage, newest-resolution, cold rollout, deletion triggers #6026 · design(atlas): retention rule engine — composite age / supersede-count / last-surfaced policy with dry-run reporter #6041 · design(atlas): embedding cost ledger — per-batch token/$ accounting with a delta reuse-ratio alert #6058 · design(atlas): delta-only ingestion + offset embeds — land only changes; span-anchored chunks with non-doubling joins #6028 · merged PR docs(atlas): record PITR vs retention boundary (#6043) #6269
    • Work area: queue/10426-6061-storage-growth-triage · /home/user/git/fleet/10426 (based on cf2d06702e79a54857acb1266a2091b79df2d54c)
    • Bookkeeping: sandbox backlog and sweep log deferred to fleet reconciliation.
16. dezren39

    removed

    status/in-progressQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

    queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

    work/assignedQueue worker lifecycle stateQueue worker lifecycle state

    on Nov 5, 2026