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State case-bucket terms ignore the bucket years in the targets #5
The 5-year case terms sum fixed simulated years and never read the bucket years in the targets (R/IMIS_functions_st.r:99-153, R/calib_functions_st.r:8-9). Not introduced in this fork.
Term
Model sums
ST_CalibDat_10-29-21
ST_CalibDat_04-20-22
nativity totals, nativity slope, age mix
1995-1999 … 2015-2019
1995-1999 … 2015-2019
1996-2000 … 2016-2020
high-risk share
1995-1999 … 2015-2019
1995-1999 … 2015-2019
1996-2000 … 2016-2020
recent-entry share
1994-1998 … 2014-2018
1994-1998 … 2014-2018
1994-1998 … 2014-2018
PPML/MITUS fits states from the 10-29-21 file, whose buckets match the summed years
this fork loads one targets file per location (R/data_loadmodel.R:60), so states fit the 04-20-22 buckets one year out of step
county targets built in the 04-20-22 layout are out of step the same way, and their tables can end in different years
published state calibrations do not reproduce on this fork
Bucket labels in the PPML/MITUS targets contain errors that would block reading years from them:
X2015.1019 for 2015-2019 in cases_nat_st_5yr, 10-29-21
99_13 for 1999-2003 in rt_fb_cases_sm, both files
00_04 for 2001-2005 and 06_10 twice in hr_cases_sm, 04-20-22
Changes
each bucket term reads its bucket years from the targets and sums the simulation over those years
model_load stops with an error naming the table when a bucketed table is not contiguous or its last bucket does not end in last_weight_year
the targets tables keep their current formats, and bucketing yearly data is left to each location's data build
Fix on branch generalize-calibration-files.
Line numbers refer to branch generalize-calibration-files at d06b730b, as of 2026-11-05.
Activity
[-]States fit the wrong CalibDat case targets[/-][+]State case-bucket terms ignore the bucket years in the targets[/+]